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St Swithin’s Day, SUP weather update (July 16) and the Met Office 10 day trend.

Swithin’s weather lore proverb suggests if it rains on St Swithin’s Day then it’ll remain the same for 40 days and 40 nights. From a forecaster’s point of view this should be the easiest period to predict conditions then – if only it were that simple!

Whilst yesterday (when St Swithin’s Day actually fell) was largely overcast across the UK, with some showers in the mix, the predicted warming of proceedings come this weekend is still on the cards, although this isn’t without caveats. There’ll be a north/south divide with temperatures still remaining cooler as you go up country whilst lower down you’ll find the aforementioned higher thermometer readings and better chances of sun.

Moving forwards, however, and good conditions will only last a few days before it becomes changeable once again. The semi-permanent Azores High really wants to dominate but all the while low pressure systems are toppling in from above squeezing it back out into the Atlantic. So basically St Swithin’s lore doesn’t ring true on this occasion…

From a paddling point of view there’ll be light winds in effect for most. Sea breezes may still show up at coastal locations during middle parts of the day so keep an eye out. Inland and you’ll have much better chance of scoring windless SUP right through the following days. If you haven’t been able to paddle during this week then you’ll be good for some SUP action in the coming days.

For next week it’s all change once again with up and down weather. There’ll still be bouts of showers and gusts of breeze will blow up on occasion. By and large it’ll still be worth a float if you can though. Wall to wall sunshine just may be a little hard to come by.

10 Day Trend 15072020

On St Swithin’s day the long range forecast should be easy… but it looks more mixed compared to what the folklore would suggest. Some warmth in the south later this week then an uncertain weekend followed by a changeable picture next week. Alex Deakin has the details.

Posted by Met Office on Wednesday, July 15, 2020
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